Following Oil in Currency Trading
If you want to become a good investor in forex, then you need to learn that the currency markets evolve and change with time. As the forex markets evolve and change, your trading strategies should also evolve and adjust. You will need to make a little tweak here and a little tweak there sometimes in your trading strategies in order to continue making profit.
There will be periods of low returns or losses when your trading strategies need adjustment with the markets. But once you have made the adjustments to your trading strategies, you will start making profits again. Dont make the mistake of getting stuck with only one currency pair and one trading strategy. Always look at macroeconomic events and how different currency pairs react to these events.
Now, lets discuss a trading strategy that depends on following oil prices in the markets. There are many sources of oil. Some currency pairs react more strongly than other when oil prices change. Fortunately for you, oil prices trend for extended periods. When oil prices rise, they continue to rise for several months.
Almost in the same fashion, when oil prices start declining, they tend to continue declining for several months. In 2008, we saw oil prices on the rise for several months before a sudden collapse. Oil prices than stabilized around $55 for many months. Some of the currencies that react strongly to oil price changes are British Pound (GBP) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Lets focus on USD/CAD currency pair in our example.
United States is the major importer of Canadian oil. The value of CAD increases with increase in oil prices in relationship to US Dollar (USD). Increase in oil prices means that the pair USD/CAD should start trending downward. This is a good example of a trend trading strategy.
Do you watch CNBC daily? You should watch for times when the oil prices are rising and the exchange rate USD/CAD is decreasing. Similarly, on CNBC look for times when oil prices decline and the exchange rate USD/CAD increases.
Use CCI, Commodity Channel Index, to trigger your trade. Watch for the 14 period CCI (Commodity Channel Index) to cross above 100 and then cross back below 100. This will tell you that the buyers have made a temporary upward push on the currency pair USD/CAD but were unable to turn the trend around. The trend is still downward.
Enter the trade and set a limit order of 300 pips and a stop loss order of 75 pips by going short on USD and long on CAD. This setup will give you a risk to reward ratio of 1:4. This risk to reward is very good and it allows you to be wrong a few times without ruining your chances of being profitable. 300 pips mean $3000 and usually such a trade will continue for 4-5 weeks.
You can also trade the USD/CAD currency pair in the opposite direction if the oil prices start to decline. However, prolonged downtrends in the oil prices are unlikely under rising global oil demand. This trading strategy depends on just knowing which way the oil prices are moving right now. You can take advantage of this oil price movement. Oil prices have again started to climb. It has reached above $68. Take advantage of the rising oil prices by trading USD/CAD pair as described above. - 23196
There will be periods of low returns or losses when your trading strategies need adjustment with the markets. But once you have made the adjustments to your trading strategies, you will start making profits again. Dont make the mistake of getting stuck with only one currency pair and one trading strategy. Always look at macroeconomic events and how different currency pairs react to these events.
Now, lets discuss a trading strategy that depends on following oil prices in the markets. There are many sources of oil. Some currency pairs react more strongly than other when oil prices change. Fortunately for you, oil prices trend for extended periods. When oil prices rise, they continue to rise for several months.
Almost in the same fashion, when oil prices start declining, they tend to continue declining for several months. In 2008, we saw oil prices on the rise for several months before a sudden collapse. Oil prices than stabilized around $55 for many months. Some of the currencies that react strongly to oil price changes are British Pound (GBP) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Lets focus on USD/CAD currency pair in our example.
United States is the major importer of Canadian oil. The value of CAD increases with increase in oil prices in relationship to US Dollar (USD). Increase in oil prices means that the pair USD/CAD should start trending downward. This is a good example of a trend trading strategy.
Do you watch CNBC daily? You should watch for times when the oil prices are rising and the exchange rate USD/CAD is decreasing. Similarly, on CNBC look for times when oil prices decline and the exchange rate USD/CAD increases.
Use CCI, Commodity Channel Index, to trigger your trade. Watch for the 14 period CCI (Commodity Channel Index) to cross above 100 and then cross back below 100. This will tell you that the buyers have made a temporary upward push on the currency pair USD/CAD but were unable to turn the trend around. The trend is still downward.
Enter the trade and set a limit order of 300 pips and a stop loss order of 75 pips by going short on USD and long on CAD. This setup will give you a risk to reward ratio of 1:4. This risk to reward is very good and it allows you to be wrong a few times without ruining your chances of being profitable. 300 pips mean $3000 and usually such a trade will continue for 4-5 weeks.
You can also trade the USD/CAD currency pair in the opposite direction if the oil prices start to decline. However, prolonged downtrends in the oil prices are unlikely under rising global oil demand. This trading strategy depends on just knowing which way the oil prices are moving right now. You can take advantage of this oil price movement. Oil prices have again started to climb. It has reached above $68. Take advantage of the rising oil prices by trading USD/CAD pair as described above. - 23196
About the Author:
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading and swing trading stocks and currencies. Discover A Revolutionary New Forex Robot. Develop your own Forex Trading System.
posted by X - Men @ 2:55 AM
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