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Monday, September 14, 2009

Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market

By Damian Papworth

There is a lot of mystique about foreign exchange trading. And probably rightly so too, it is after all one of the riskiest financial markets you can trade. In this article, we will take you through the reasons this market is so risky and hopefully to some extent, take the mystery out of the market.

Firstly, what is the Foreign Exchange market anyway? What are we trading? Its simple really, we are trading money from different countries. We buy money (which is called currency) in one country by selling currency from a different country. Its an extremely important market for the proper functioning of the global economy. You may not be aware of this, but as a consumer, you have almost definitely participated in this market either directly or indirectly, and probably do so every day.

If you have ever gone overseas on a holiday or for business, you would have needed to obtain currency in the country you visited. It doesn't matter if you used travellers cheques, credit card or cash, by functioning as a consumer overseas you would have needed to buy some local currency with the money you earned at home. It is this transaction that had you participating directly in the FX Market as a consumer.

An example of indirect participation is when you buy imported products in your home country. Products made overseas are usually sold in the currency of the country they were made. When they are sold in a country which is different to the one where they were produced, at some stage someone will need to make a foreign exchange transaction, translating the price of the product from the currency where the product was produced, to the currency where the product was consumed. It could be the producer, an importing company or the retailer that does this. Regardless, when you buy imported products, the currency translation will have occurred and therefore you have indirectly participated in a foreign currency transaction.

Maybe you have been mystified by the fluctuating currencies of different countries. Like most things in the business world the currency's supply versus its demand changes the rate. When a currency comes into high demand, with few sellers on the market, that makes it instantly more valuable. Buyers will pay a higher price to get their hands on it. Conversely, when a currency is unwanted and sellers flood the market looking to dump it, the price goes down. Those willing to take on such an unattractive commodity pay less to do so. The explanation is simple when you think in this manner.

The really tough question though is what makes supply and demand change? This is the 1 question which makes trading in the FX market so difficult. Basically, no-one knows exactly what all the factors are that cause supply and demand to change in these markets. Many traders have a good idea of the major influences, but there are so many things which impact currencies that it is nigh on impossible to formularise the exact reasons currencies change price.

The currency figures of a particular country represent the economic value of that country, thus compared against that of another country. When you start to consider the endless number of factors which can affect an economy in one direction or another, and how some of them defy all logic, you will see the dilemma of anyone who is trading currency for a living.

But your countries economy is only half the equation. We are not measuring the value of your economy alone, rather comparing it against the economy of a different country. Therefore, even if you have a really good understanding of your own economy, you need the same understanding of the other country's economy also.

Beyond these concerns, you'll have to gauge the economy and currency of the two countries in the scheme of the world economy. To determine if one country's currency will become more valuable over time, you need a lot of information and considerable foresight, as this is a complex equation.

And if you manage to get all your analysis correct, you then need to hope everyone else does too. Currencies can move on investors opinions, expectations met or expectations not met, global sentiments of what is likely to happen as much as global opinion of what has happened. There are fundamental traders (who look at information such as the above to make their decisions) and technical traders. (who just follow graphs and don't care why) Both trader groups can impact the price as they impact supply and demand.

Some investors will buy currencies with long-range goals in mind. With a big investment in currencies, they use it to support other ventures, which also has an effect on the currency's value.

There are also Foreign Exchange Trading strategies and these don't necessarily depend on rising or falling prices. No matter how the currencies are moving, the investor will make a small profit, as the currency inches in either direction.

I hope this helps take some of the mystery out of the FOREX market. - 23196

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