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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Don't Count China Out

By Michael Swanson

Some are speculating the China economy will grow this year less than in the previous year and expect that will hurt commodities and oil stocks. The are putting weight on the concern that there will be real property bubble bursting. Yet, others are countering this prognosis with the caution that this is not a bubble across China.

The World Bank and the Chinese Government are more sanguine. They expect the economy to grow this year. China is now the world's leading exporter and the leading car market as well. China's domestic consumption is expected to continue to grow in 2010, with fixed asset investments up from the previous year as well as a retail sales rise.

China's President told Asian business leaders that policy has been implemented to raise economic growth with consumer spending, investments and exports. He described the four factors of the policy that had stimulated the economy. He pointed out that the government investments and policy was channeled to projects related to people's well-being, their concerns about the environment and into technological innovation. Free trade and regional economic integration are parts of this overall plan.

Further Urbanization Seen As Domestic Consumer Market Booster

A central economic conference last December saw the release of information that urbanization is seen as a tool in helping to raise domestic consumer demand. Policymakers have examined the relaxing of controls on permanent residence to expedite settlement in small and mid-sized urban areas. This policy has kept rural migrants from flooding urban areas.

Urban jobs have provided rural migrants with income that rivals favorably income earned by labor that has travelled abroad. This was reported in a report released in 2005 by a World Bank affiliate. The figures revealed that China's migrants sent more remittances home than Indian workers who send the most foreign remittances back to the home country.

China's ambitious rail program will support urbanization plans. One element of this program is the development of high speed lines. The he first high-speed line's unveiling took place at the time the Olympics opened in Beijing. This service line connected Beijing to Tianjin. December 2009 saw the link between Guangzhou and Wuhan become operational, with the line expected to be eventually extended all the way to Beijing. Other lines in April 2009 became operational between Wuhan and Hefei and also between Shijiazhuang and Taiyuan. The growth in this high speed rail transportation network is an indication that the China economy will grow this year and in the years to come. - 23196

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