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Saturday, December 19, 2009

Wicked Institutional Traders Play The Stop

By Sam Nielson

Loads of traders feel you should set your stop based on how much money you are prepared to lose. This is a whopping mistake institutional traders wish you continue to make. Stop placement requires greater proficiency than that. A stop must not be placed too close to the current market price or too far away.

Someplace You Must Never Put A Stop

Right above previous highs or right below former lows is a perilous place for stops. An equally treacherous place for stops is at the 50 and 200 day MAs. This is because numerous stops are repeatedly lodged together at these prices, tempting institutional stop-runners to snipe the stops. Prior intraday highs and lows are also areas where stops will collect.

The Chief Mistake You Need To Steer Clear Of When Placing A Trailing Stop

When placing a trailing stop, you ought to relocate the stop in a certain direction only. If the market is moving higher and you are long, your trailing sell stop must be moved higher. On the other hand, if you are short and the market is moving lower, you must move your buy stop down-never higher-as the position gains profits.

How To Utilize Fibonacci Retracement Levels As Places To Locate Your Stops

The maximum amount you want the market to retrace is .618 (61.8%) of the original move. You do not want the stop placed exactly at the .618 point, but a little below or above that level, depending upon whether you are buying or selling. The wisdom is, institutional stop-runners will frequently target the stops at that level. Once the market has retraced more than .618, odds are the market is going to continue to trend in its current direction.

How You Can Uncover If Institutional and Professional Traders Are Stop-Running

Stop-running is characterized by what is known as price rejection. The market suddenly moves lower, only to do a swift recovery. This chart pattern generally appears as a 'v' bottom. At highs, the market will often rise up on short covering, go lifeless at the top, and swiftly go lower. This chart pattern usually appears as a 'v' top. Once the stops are run, the market generally moves in the opposite direction.

How Market Volatility Can Help You Establish Your Stops

As market volatility increases, the stops have got to be moved further away from the present market price. Keep an eye on the Volatility Index ($VIX). The higher the $VIX, the further away from the existing market price you should set your stops. This only makes sense, because otherwise random moves will cause the stops to be hit. Try to stay away from placing your stop where other traders have placed theirs. An abundance of stops at one price will cause panic buying or selling and you will receive a dreadful fill as a consequence. - 23196

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Rule Of 72

By Zigfred Diaz

An Overseas Filipino Worker (OFW) started to work abroad. Having worked for several years there at the age of 29 had a total savings of P 100,000.00 (Philippine peso)

Because the only mode of investment he knew about was to put his money in the bank, he placed his P 100,000.00 in the bank. Of course, the bank manager was delighted when he opened the account. He even recommended that the money be placed in a time deposit account in order that it would yield 4 % per annum, a much more higher interest rate than an ordinary savings account.

So he placed his money in the time deposit account and waited until he reached the age of 65. At the age of 65 he went back to the bank and asked to withdraw the P 100,000.00 in his time deposit account. Lo and behold his P100,000.00 already became P 400,000.00 because of the interest. So he withdrew his money from the bank and lived happily ever after.

Is this a "live happily ever after" story or not? Do you consider this OFW as somebody who has "wisely" handled his money? Is he really earning the maximum potential for his money or is he making somebody else rich.

The rule of 72 gives us the answers to the above questions. This rule determines how many years it will take your money to double. The rule is expressed in this very simple equation: 72 / interest = No. of years it takes for your money to double

In the case of this Filipino OFW, every 18 years his money will double. 72 divided 4 % per annum = 18 years. So if he deposited his P 100,000.00 at age 29, his money will become P 200,000.00 at age 47. Add another 18 years then he reaches the age of 65. This time his money becomes P 400,000.00.

Now that the P 100,000.00 is in the bank's hand, what do they do with it ? Well they basically invest it in other vehicles of investments which gives them a higher interest rate such as mutual funds, the stock market, the money market, government bonds, corporate bonds etc. They even use it to loan it back to the depositors at a much more higher interest rate. But let's just say that all of the bank's investing activities gave a return of 12 % per annum. Using the rule of 72, it can be determined that the same amount of money will double every 6 years. (computed as follows: 72 divided by 12 % interest = 6 years)

So after 36 years when the OFW goes back to the bank to claim his P 100,000.00 the bank manager gives back his P 100,000.00 with a smile plus the interest of P 300,000 totalling to P 400,000.00.They wouldn't need that anyway since they already made a total of P 6,400,000.00 out of the OFW's P 100,000.00. Talk about hi-way robbery !

If you want to be wealthy and be a better steward of your money then think like the bank! Make the Rule of 72 work for you ! - 23196

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Principles Of Investments In The Stock Market - Part 1

By Zigfred Diaz

A lot of people have asked me on whether they should invest in the Philippine stock market. Most of those who asked also wanted to know how to start doing it. I do not know if they are really serious about investing or if they are merely curious about it since it has been given emphasis lately considering its very positive performance.

The fainthearted has no business investing in the Philippine stock market or the stock market in general. A true investor always has expectations as to how much he will earn from a certain investment. Normally this is measured in terms of how much money will grow at a given time. (This is commonly known as interest per annum) Now that the Philippine Stock market is in its highest level for some time now, people think that they should get themselves involved. Sad to say most do not even have a grasp of the basic principles involved neither do they understand how the system works. This is not to imply that you have to be an economist before you should consider investing.

What you should understand is that you must know the basic principles involved first before you can achieve a level of success in investing in the stock market. Fortunes are made on the Stock market. But take note that huge losses are also incurred. Those who just plunge into the stock market without a grasp of the basic principles of investment end up convincing themselves that the stock market is no good at all, does not make them any money and finally quit after some time.

Before I would even begin to tackle the ins and outs of the how to invest in the Philippine stock market you should first understand the basic principles of investment in order that you might enjoy trading and possibly succeed in the stock market. I will be discussing ten of them. We will discuss the first one here. The other points will be tackled on coming articles. If you wish to see the entire article please visit my blog.

1.) An alternative vehicle of investment - The first principle is that you must realize that the stock market is just another alternative vehicle of investment. There are other investment vehicles in which you could invest in. Each vehicle of investment is unique and one is not more superior than others. Each of them has their own advantages and disadvantages. This will not be discussed in depth here.

You must understand that the stock market belongs to an investment category called "Capital Markets." Capital Markets are divided further into several categories. Here alone, there are several investment vehicles wherein you could place your money. Examples of these investment vehicles aside from the stock market are real estate, pension funds, bonds, insurance, different types of savings and time deposit accounts. It is of vital importance that you know this fact because knowing the different types of investment vehicles under the Capital markets will help you evaluate whether or not you should invest in the Stock Market considering that there are other vehicles of investment.

I reiterate that each vehicle of investment has its own advantages and disadvantages. I did not to place all of my eggs in one basket. Most of my investments are in the Capital Markets though. This includes bonds through mutual funds, the stock market, insurance, pension and deposits. - 23196

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Why You Should Invest In The Stock Market - Part 2

By Zigfred Diaz

In my previous article, the first part on the advantages or the reasons why you should invest in the stock market was discussed. Three points are highlighted, mainly potential for greater returns, part ownership of the company you are investing and belonging to a special group of people. This is the second part of this two part series. Check out my blog should you wish to view the article in its entirety.

4.) One of the best if not the best vehicle of investment - In 1986 the Philippine stock market recorded its highest return rate at 224 %. The lowest return rate was recorded in 1997 at negative 41 %. The average return in 20 years time however ranges from 24 % to 28 % per year. It can therefore be clearly seen that while it is true that investing in the stock market has its up and down, in the long run long term investments in the stock market still yields a greater return. Hence it can be concluded that the long term investors always benefit and that the stock market is still one of the best vehicles of investment.

5.) Increases your financial knowledge and forces you to learn. - If you dozed off in your high school or college days economics class before, you might loose all your hair right now just to force yourself to try to understand what inflation means. You start to begin reading the business news regularly and try to give importance to major news headlines as this will have an impact on the behaviour of the market. You will be forced to understand words that you never understood before. You will become more smarter and wiser more than ever as are forced to keep on increasing your financial and investments knowledge.

6.) Helps you understand the importance of being online and getting instant "knowledge" in this age of information technology. - Man has gone a long way from the stone age, the iron age, bronze age up to the industrial age. Now we have moved one more step ahead as we are right now in the "information technology age" where knowledge is power. Trading in the stock market by means of utilizing information technology certainly gives meaning to the adage that "knowledge is power." Years ago when I was still in college I wanted to know what it is like to invest in the stock market as I was intrigued by what I see in the movies when traders shout buy or sell. Unfortunately, I did not invest back then because of the lack of information, capability and most of all the lack of capital to do so.

The advent of the internet age has certainly changed a lot of things. The information technology is powered by the internet and information on anything is accessible via the world wide web. This has also the changed the way stock market trading is done. Because of this I am now able to do everything online such as monitoring the business news, buying and selling shares of stocks and transferring money to and from my accounts. A future development would be to trade stocks globally. Although this might prove to be a much more complicated area of study nevertheless the principles of stock trading are similar.

7.) Helps build the nation - Investing in the stock market helps build the nation. Most stock market investors may not realize this but this is one of the most noble objective and advantage of investing in the stock market. Companies who are listed in the stock exchange intends to infuse more capital into their business in order that such capital might be further used for expansion. Business expansions would mean more people are hired for work. The government also benefits as more taxes are being paid. This further translates into more economic activity which in the long runs helps build the nation.

These reasons certainly make a compelling argument as to why you should invest in the stock market. - 23196

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Stock Market - Basic Principles - Part 4

By Zigfred Diaz

In this article we will be discussing the last three principles of investment in the stock market. In the past articles we have already discussed the first seven principles. If you want to see the entire article, visit my blog.

8.) Study Study Study !!! - You have to do a lot of study if you want to be a a successful stock market investor. Don't expect that you can just place in your money and hope that it will somehow grow. Read a lot of books and materials on the stock market. I started out this way. I searched the internet for materials on the stock market, especially the Philippine stock market. The Philippine stock exchange has an "investor's primer." I bought this material and other stuff from them.

You can also attend seminars on how to trade in the stock market. Several brokerage firms have conducted free seminars for those who are new to the stock market. I attended a 2 day seminar by CITISEC Online last year. CITISEC online is one of the most innovative, well managed and most active brokerage firms in the country. The information that you could learn is astounding. Studying the stock market requires continual study. You should not stop learning.

Do the best you can to read all the materials out there and attend all the seminars if possible. Do not give up just because you encounter terms that you could not understand. For example when you went over this article you would probably scratch your head since there are terms that are difficult to understand. Terms such as "points", Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi), "Blue Chips" or "Bull run" may sound foreign to you. Add to the fact that you don't even understand what a stock is and how it works. So what ? When I first began I did not even know what these things are.

Stuff like these are never taught in school. I only learned them by reading and having a hands on experience in trading. I highly suggest that you watch the movie "Pursuit of Happyness" This is a story about one man's struggle to learn the stock market. Years later he made millions through stock trading. This movie is based on a true story and is sure to inspire you!

9.) News Clues - Know today's news and use them to your advantage. There are a thousand factors that are in the news that will definitely have an effect as to which direction the market will take. The most important page that an investor should read is the business page. This will give you an idea as to which stock should be bought or sold. My preferred daily news reading is the Philippine Daily Inquirer. I get ideas here on the possible directions the market will take.

10.) You must start now - The best way to learn is to experience it yourself. Start small if you wish but start now. Don't procrastinate. However don't rush immediately without studying how to go about it. After you have at least learned the basics of investments then you can start buying your first stock. There's nothing more exciting when you have made your first sale at a profit. - 23196

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